Steve DanyliwFeb 4 

If you asked me a month ago what to expect from January, I would have painted a pretty standard picture. A seasonal cooldown, a slight inventory dip, the usual. But as the numbers have rolled in, it’s clear this wasn’t a typical January. This month offered a handful of surprises that give us a much clearer snapshot of where our market truly stands as we begin the new year.

Let’s start with the biggest story: the shift in market balance. Our absorption rate, which measures how long it would take to sell all active listings, jumped to 4.29 months in January. Just a month prior in December, it was 2.45 months. For perspective, in January of 2022 we were at a hyper-competitive 0.42 months. This move past the 4-month mark signals we have transitioned from a balanced market into a moderate buyer’s market overall. The story gets more interesting when we split the data. The attached property segment (think townhomes and condos) is firmly in buyer’s market territory at 6.99 months, while detached single-family homes are holding a more balanced position at 3.5 months.

This shift is fueled by a surprising surge in inventory. We ended January with 8,228 active properties. Normally, we see a seasonal drop of about 1.52 percent this time of year. Instead, we saw a flood of new sellers deciding to list. For buyers, this is unequivocally good news, providing more options and breathing room in negotiations.

The median closed price in January was $569,500. That represents a 0.96 percent dip from December and an equal 0.96 percent decrease from January of last year. While we normally see a small seasonal price drop, this confirms the cooling trend. There was a small glimmer for the attached segment, where the median price actually rose 1.30 percent from December to $390,000, though it’s still down year-over-year. This presents a more affordable entry point for many buyers.

Perhaps the most tangible change for sellers and agents is the clock. Homes are taking longer to sell. Detached homes that closed in January averaged 71 days on market, up from 64 in December. Attached properties averaged 85 days. For context, in January 2022 we were seeing a frantic 19 and 22 days, respectively. This return to a more normal marketing timeline requires adjusted expectations and strategies.

On the financial front, mortgage rates provided some mid-month drama with a brief drop on news of a government plan to buy mortgage-backed securities. Reality set in quickly, and rates rebounded, ending the month at 6.20 percent for a conventional 30-year fixed and 5.84 percent for FHA loans. The broader economic landscape appears steady. The Federal Reserve held firm, and key indicators on jobs, services, and consumer sentiment suggest a resilient economy, which is a stable foundation for real estate.

So, what does this all mean? January told us that the market reset we’ve been discussing is real and here. We are in a new phase defined by more choice, more time, and more negotiation power for buyers, especially in the attached home segment. Sellers must be prepared with accurate pricing and patience. This isn’t 2022, but it’s also not 2011. It’s a market returning to normalcy, which, after the rollercoaster of recent years, might be the biggest surprise of all.

Did you know? Industry research shows that buyers who start their home search early in the year often face less competition and have more room to negotiate—one reason the first quarter is traditionally a strong planning period for serious buyers. If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, this new balanced market might be your signal to start the conversation.